Joel E Lewis

Statistics are one of the most used and abused analytical tools in today’s world, and this article gives a good overview of a very common problem.  When calculating the effect of a policy, behavior, or in this case, a medication, should you report the total effect or absolute percentage, or should you consider the likelihood [...]

Why isn’t financial analysis more probabilistic?  We make all these assumptions and predictions in making a financial analysis or forecast, but for all the thought that goes into that, those assumptions get buried in the model, hidden behind single value variables.  We don’t build ranges right into the model (except in a sensitivity analysis, which [...]